Clearing skies this afternoon, but no big storm on the horizon. The snowpack remains in a delicate balance due to large depth hoar and faceted grains near the ground. So when will it change?
The bad news is under the current cold climate conditions in Gulmarg, the snowpack will not change. Only a mechanical force can remove the present danger by basically carrying away the weak grains. A mechanical force is another way of saying avalanche trigger. Typically, changes in Himalayan weather brings a large snow storm to the region by mid January; a mechanical force whose massive weight overwhelms the weak snowpack, triggering avalanches in most of the steep paths of the alpine region.
In the absence of a big storm, the weak grains will remain, holding the snowpack in an unstable state until Springtime. Until nature provides a big storm and lays out a more "welcome" snowpack the next best mechanical force to trigger avalanches is...you!
The alpine snowpack is very dangerous and vulnerable to human triggering of large, destructive avalanches. Confident, pre-planned route selection avoiding dangerous slopes is a requirement of any tour in the alpine region.
The alpine avalanche hazard: Considerable (3) on all steep aspects. Human triggering of large, destructive avalanches remains probable.
Below treeline the hazard is Moderate (2) on North aspects, Low (1) elsewhere.
Please join the Gulmarg Avalanche Information Center forecasters this Tuesday night for the avalanche awareness talk. 7pm. Pine Palace Heritage
